ALCS and NLCS Rival Executives Reveal Insights on Key Questions for MLB Teams – Hot

There are a handful of managers, coaches and front office types who won’t watch the playoffs after their teams get eliminated. “Why the f— would I want to subject myself to that?” asked one high-ranking executive. “I don’t want to watch other teams playing games I think we could be playing. I don’t want to watch other people celebrate.”

But most do watch — closely. Boston Red Sox manager Alex Cora is among those; he explained recently that he watches because it is part of his job and because he loves baseball. Another member of a different coaching staff says he likes to watch because he wants to learn from the likes of managers Torey Lovullo, Dusty Baker, Rob Thomson and Bruce Bochy, judging his own decisions against theirs in real time.

A half-dozen evaluators chimed in with thoughts on some of the biggest questions surrounding the four teams in the American and National League Championship Series: the Houston Astros, Texas Rangers, Philadelphia Phillies and Arizona Diamondbacks.

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1. How will the Diamondbacks deal with Bryce Harper?

Harper is treating this October like his own personal whiffle ball game — against the Braves, he went 6-for-13 with three homers and five walks.

“You’re going to have to do what you can to make sure he’s not the guy who beats you,” said one NL evaluator. Another front office type feels the same way: “He’s the guy you circle.”

When the Miami Marlins faced the Phillies in the wild-card series, Miami threw waves of left-handed pitching at Harper and held him to one hit in six at-bats. But the Diamondbacks don’t have that kind of volume. Their best starters, Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly, are both right-handed, and their best relievers are right-handed. “And they don’t really have a lefty that’s a great matchup against Harper,” said one evaluator.

What will be crucial, most said, is that the Arizona pitchers limit the damage of the guys in front of Harper, so they aren’t forced to pitch to him. That will be a major challenge due to leadoff man Kyle Schwarber’s ability to get on base and No. 2 hitter Trea Turner’s hot streak — he’s batting .355 since Philly fans gave him a standing ovation Aug. 4.

One evaluator also suggested that the Diamondbacks rely on a lot of secondary pitches early in the count — sliders, curves, changeups — and stay away from the fastball. Because in this postseason, the Phillies’ hitters, he says, “are on the attack.”

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2. How will the Rangers deal with Yordan Alvarez?

As with Harper, it seems to be more shocking when Alvarez doesn’t launch a ball into the outfield seats. In the division series, Alvarez pounded the Minnesota Twins for seven hits in 16 at-bats, with four homers and a walk.

The Twins had a distinct plan of attack against Alvarez — working inside — but too often, they couldn’t get it far enough inside, and Alvarez began blistering everything thrown to him. “If [Texas] paid attention to what [Minnesota] did, I’d say — good 12 to 6 curveballs, if you have guys who can throw them, and you have to knock him off the plate. Go up and in. [Nathan] Eovaldi can go up and in, and he’s got that splitter, to try to get him to chase away.”

With Jordan Montgomery on the mound in Game 1, the Rangers attacked Alvarez straight on, mostly with a curveball — and to great success. But from here, Rangers manager Bruce Bochy has a lot of imperfect bullpen options when it comes to dealing with Alvarez, one front office type noted. Lefty Will Smith doesn’t have overpowering stuff, and Aroldis Chapman throws hard but can be very inconsistent. “What does Forrest Gump’s mom say about a box of chocolates? You never know what you’re going to get [from Chapman],” the staffer said.

Instead, one AL evaluator said: “You need to pitch around him whenever you can. The Twins really didn’t do that.” He thinks the Rangers will do so more often, in part because one of the guys who batted behind him, Kyle Tucker, has been slumping of late. “That makes it an easier decision,” the evaluator said. “[Tucker] isn’t swinging so well right now and the other guy behind Alvarez is [Jose] Abreu, who is hitting well but is more likely to give you a double play opportunity.”

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3. What will Max Scherzer bring to the table?

The last time Scherzer faced the Astros, on Sept. 7, Houston hammered the right-hander for seven runs in three innings, allowing homers to Alvarez, Michael Brantley and Jose Abreu. Scherzer made one more start before going on the injured list. Since then, he’s been going through treatment and gradually rebuilding his pitch count, and he and Bochy spoke hopefully about his progress after his last simulated game. Scherzer was added to the Texas roster for this series, but it’s unclear how or when Bochy will try to use him.

And it’s unclear how good he’ll be. Scherzer is a three-time Cy Young winner, a certain Hall of Famer, and the owner of more than 3,000 strikeouts. But he is also 39 years old, and in that start against the Astros last month, his average fastball was 93.9 mph. His rate of swinging strikes generated this season (13.3%) is his lowest since 2014, and he got less production out of his slider this season than ever. He’s generally pitched well since joining Texas at the deadline, but he hasn’t worked in a game in a month, so he will carry a lot of variables into his outings.

The Astros, said one evaluator, “aren’t going to be afraid of him. There’s not going to be some mystique with him. He’s a good pitcher, but they know him and they’ve hit him [recently] and when they face him, they’ll have a game plan.”

“The best thing he’ll have going for him is his experience.”

And Bochy trusts experience. Remember how Barry Zito went from being left off the Giants’ roster in 2010 to making important starts for San Francisco in 2012?

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4. Will the Diamondbacks be able to run against the Phillies?

Arizona finished second in the majors in stolen bases, and the chief executive of the Diamondbacks’ running game, first-base coach Dave McKay, is widely viewed as the best in the business — someone who can identify tendencies and opportunities. The D-backs have speed, and they have an attentive group of baserunners. Five different players stole 10 or more bases for them during the regular season, led by Corbin Carroll’s 54, third-best in MLB.

But rival evaluators say that the Phillies have the best antidote available to a running game: catcher J.T. Realmuto. He continues to be an elite thrower, and evaluators note that he’s really good at calling pickoffs, throwing behind runners and injecting doubt into the mind of would-be base-stealers. The Phillies’ pitching and coaching staffs have done well in supporting Realmuto’s effort to slow baserunners. “All of their left-handers use a slide step,” noted one evaluator. “You don’t see that with other teams.”

In 133 games, opponents stole 81 bases against Realmuto, who threw out 23 runners, fourth-most among all catchers. And in a postseason game, with players more attuned to details, it might be even more difficult for McKay to find spots for his players to run. They probably won’t come against Zack Wheeler, who allowed only three steals in seven attempts during the season; Aaron Nola, on the other hand, allowed 21 steals in 26 attempts, and Ranger Suarez surrendered seven in nine attempts.

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5. How will the Diamondbacks’ players handle the Philadelphia crowd?

The potential impact of the Citizens Bank Park crowd is real, said one staffer, who stood on the foul line and watched young players facing the Phillies hear the cacophony of fans yell in unison: “YOU SUCK.” For older players — the likes of Tommy Pham and Evan Longoria — it’s no big deal. But it could be an issue for the young players dealing with that kind of loud, relentless feedback for the first time — some will go about their work; others will shrink. The Phillies have won about 70% of their home postseason games since Citizens Bank Park opened, and if the Diamondbacks are going to win this series, they’re going to have to win at least one — or two — games in Philadelphia.

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6. Without a lefty on his staff, how will Houston manager Dusty Baker try to combat the left-handed-hitting Corey Seager?

Seager has seemingly spent every October of his major league career playing in the playoffs, and at the moment, the 2020 World Series MVP is swinging hot. For the second straight year, Baker doesn’t have left-handed options in his bullpen — though it should be noted that the lack of lefties didn’t prevent the Astros from dominating opposing hitters in last year’s postseason.

The Astros’ Bryan Abreu tends to be the guy whom Baker pits against the toughest left-handed hitters, and why not — during the regular season, Abreu whiffed 100 batters in 72 innings. (In Game 1, he struck out two in the ninth inning.) Lefties batted .185 against him with a .303 slugging percentage. But Abreu is only going to see Seager once a game, at most; Hector Neris, who relies on a splitter, might also get some opportunities against the Texas slugger.

When Seager faces the Houston starting pitchers and closer Ryan Pressly, one evaluator predicts that the Astros will try to coax Seager out of the strike zone with a lot of slop low — breaking balls, changeups — and high fastballs over the top of the zone. “And if they walk him, they walk him,” said the evaluator. “How many walks does he have in the postseason so far?”

Eleven walks. Eleven, in five games against the Tampa Bay Rays and Baltimore Orioles. “Yeah, that makes sense,” the evaluator said. “They’d rather deal with the guy batting behind him.”

Lately, that’s been Mitch Garver, 4-for-14 with seven RBIs in the postseason this year.

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7. What will Framber Valdez bring to the table?

The Houston lefty was a dominant force last year, posting a 2.82 ERA and leading the league in innings, with a nasty sinker that forced opposing hitters to beat the ball into the ground. But the Valdez who threw against the Twins in the division series looked very different — he was much more vulnerable. He had seemingly no feel for his sinker, leaving several floating through the top half of the strike zone, and when he tried to win with his curveball, he struggled there, too.

“His sinker used to be his bread-and-butter pitch, and his curveball was his strikeout pitch,” one evaluator said. “He doesn’t have the ability to get the same kind of slow ground ball that would get him double plays when he needed.”

Without his usual weapons, Valdez might have to will his way through. His third-best pitch is his changeup, which can be effective, and he has a ton of experience to fall back on. That’s why Baker left him in against the Twins, even after Valdez gave up three runs in the first two innings (he gave up another two in the fifth before being pulled) — because he bet that Valdez would find a way to prevail.

Another evaluator said: “Dusty believes in his guys, but if Framber doesn’t have a feel, he might have to go to the bullpen sooner than he usually does. The Rangers’ lineup is too good — they will not let him off the hook if he doesn’t have his stuff.”

An NL evaluator suggests: “Watch his curveball. He will try to make that work early. If he can’t, it’s going to be a problem, because he doesn’t have that sinker to fall back on and get a double play.”

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8. Which closer will actually close?

The four remaining teams are all armed with good relievers, but let’s just say that most of the remaining managers have been open to change in picking their ninth-inning guys. Craig Kimbrel has more than 400 saves, but in the series against the Atlanta Braves, Phillies manager Rob Thomson elected to deploy him in the seventh inning; lefty Matt Strahm got the last outs. Bochy used Jose Leclerc to throw the ninth inning in the first rounds of the playoffs, but he was more flexible during the regular season: Leclerc got four saves in nine chances. (And he got the save once again in the Rangers’ Game 1 win over the Astros.) Paul Sewald was a pivotal deadline pickup for the Diamondbacks; Arizona probably wouldn’t have made the playoffs without him. But he does tend to give up fly balls — he’s allowed 28 homers over the past three seasons, and that could be an issue against a powerful Phillies lineup.

The Astros’ Pressly is the most established of the remaining closers, and even for him, this season has been a challenge at times; he posted his highest ERA (3.58) since his days with the Twins. “I bet you’re going to see some leads blown in this round,” one NL evaluator said. “There is a lot of power in these lineups.”