Key factors to anticipate in Sunday’s highly-anticipated clash between Arsenal and Manchester City – Update

It was a night to decide the Premier League title when Arsenal and Manchester City last met in April and, with conviction, it was Pep Guardiola’s team who swept aside the greatest challenger to their crown.

Arsenal’s unbeaten start to the new domestic season would suggest they remain the biggest threat to City’s pursuit of a fourth consecutive title but this afternoon brings an acid test at the Emirates Stadium.

These are the days to make statements, to quantify the strength of credentials. And Arsenal, transformed by Mikel Arteta, are yet to land a telling blow on the rivals they wish to overtake. Not quite another occasion to shape a season, but the biggest game so far in the 2023-24 Premier League.

The Athletic assesses how the two teams are shaping up as last season’s domestic runners-up host the treble winners.

City aim to recover from Wolves mauling

It might only be a chink of vulnerability that has emerged in Manchester City’s armour, but it is a chink nevertheless. After six straight wins were ruthlessly chalked up to begin the Premier League season, a surprising 2-1 loss away to Wolverhampton Wanderers last Saturday showed the champions were fallible at the end of a week that had also brought a limp exit from the Carabao Cup at Newcastle United.

The midweek win away to RB Leipzig in the Champions League helped set City back on their feet but their recent shortcomings away from the Etihad Stadium will provide Arsenal with encouragement.

Arteta’s side have collected more points than City since the September international break and remain unbeaten in the Premier League this season. A resounding 4-0 win over Bournemouth last weekend was perhaps as good as they have been, even if the Champions League subsequently delivered a setback away to Lens of France.

The form would tentatively suggest advantage Arsenal but a teeny, tiny little detail it is best not to forget… City have won their last 12 Premier League meetings, with an aggregate scoreline of 33 goals to five. You have to go back to April 2017, when Arsene Wenger was still their manager, for the last time Arsenal took as much as a Premier League point against City.

Can Arsenal exploit Rodri’s suspension?

An explanation for City’s September stumbles could well be the Rodri-shaped hole in their midfield. The Spaniard missed the defeats to Newcastle and Wolves through suspension after getting sent off against Nottingham Forest, and completes his ban by sitting out today’s match at the Emirates.

Mateo Kovacic and Kalvin Phillips have both had turns at deputising without being particularly convincing and City must take a look at what they might have won when lining up today against Declan Rice, the midfielder they coveted, along with Arsenal, in the summer.

Rice was the subject of a £90million bid from City before he joined Arsenal from West Ham United for £105million and the England international promises to bring marginal gains to Arteta’s side this season. An Arsenal midfield including Rice might well have the upper hand over a City side missing Rodri, John Stones and Kevin De Bruyne, three starters in the Champions League final in June.

Another with personal motivations will be Gabriel Jesus, Arsenal’s attacking talisman whom City were prepared to let go 15 months ago. The Brazilian missed the corresponding fixture through injury last season. City tend to concede on their travels, suggesting Jesus will get his opportunities. As will City’s Erling Haaland because, well, he always does.

Arteta’s selection dilemmas

The names on the team sheet will be the first point of interest. We are none the wiser about who Arteta considers his first-choice goalkeeper for the biggest of occasions, although he has so far leaned much more heavily on summer signing David Raya than previous No 1 Aaron Ramsdale. Arsenal’s chances of success would also be far higher if Bukayo Saka can overcome the muscle injury that forced him off against Lens on Tuesday.

City will look to control a contest they have dominated in recent years, drawing out the sting from an Arsenal side who have won 19 of their last 25 home games in the Premier League.

GO DEEPER

Do head-to-head matches between the eventual top two really matter?

Guardiola will not want it to become an open, basketball-style slugfest but he might not get too much choice in the matter.

Goals are a given at the Emirates. In a run that extends back to City’s previous visit in February, there have been 56 of them in Arsenal’s last 13 Premier League home fixtures. Or 4.3 per game. Plenty of the goals come late, too, with eight of those scored after the 85th minute.

Don’t go anywhere.

Both sides have a chance to go top

Arsenal will top the table if they can finally get the better of City — and do so by two goals. City also go back into first place with a win of any sort.

Not since the final weeks of last season, when leapfrogged by an unrelenting City side in late April, have Arsenal occupied the summit and taking that jump would represent a small psychological victory.

Heaven knows Arteta needs one up against Guardiola, the head coach he spent three years working under as assistant at the Etihad. An FA Cup semi-final win over City in July 2020 at a Wembley Stadium kept empty because of crowd restrictions related to the Covid-19 pandemic remains the only time Arteta has outwitted Guardiola (aside from a Community Shield won on penalties eight weeks ago), with last season’s Premier League defeats illustrating an apprentice befuddled by his master.

City remain the only Premier League opponents Arteta has faced without beating. Played seven, lost seven. Can you really win a title without first conquering City? The doubts linger.

GO DEEPER

Arsenal v Manchester City: How Arteta and Guardiola might try to out-think each other

(Top photo: Sportsphoto/Allstar via Getty Images)