More Films: Black Panther, Roma, Vice –

Well, folks, this is it. From the beginning of September, I’ve been trying to predict which films were going to be in the Oscar race. There were a few films, aspects, and performances that I had nailed from the beginning, a couple of late hitters, a bunch of disappointments, and now it’s time to lay it all down and, one last time, say who’s getting nominated where and for what. We’ll start at the tech categories and go into the top eight.

 

Best Live Action Short

And the nominees will be…

Caroline
Detainment
Icare
Marguerite
Skin

The three short categories are always difficult to predict, so I tend to do best when sneaking a peek at GoldDerby and a few other awards sites, and these five seem to be fairly consistent picks. Five other films made the shortlist of potential nominees, so just to cover my bases, the only other potential nominees are Mother, May Day, Wale, Fauve, and Chuchotage.

 

Best Documentary Short

And the nominees will be…

Black Sheep
End Game
Period. End of Sentence.
Women of the Gulag
Zion

In this category, the general ground-rules for good predicting is to pick the shorts about the following topics: Holocaust, children, prison, education, and occasionally an animated short that qualifies here and not in the animated short category. So, for the most part, that’s the logic I’m working off of. The other five potentials are 63 Boycott, A Night at the Garden, Los Comandos, Lifeboat, and My Dead Dad’s Porno Tapes.

 

Best Animated Short

And the nominees are…

Animal Behaviour
Bao
Bilby
Late Afternoon
Lost and Found

Again, I’m just following the trends here, ooh, and including Pixar. Always include Pixar, even if the animated feature that the short’s attached to isn’t a big player. The other five shorts that could be nominated are Weekends, Bird Karma, One Small Step, Pepe le Morse, and Age of Sail.

 

Best Visual Effects

And the nominees will be…

Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

There are a couple of helpful hints we got from the Visual Effects Society nominations, where Black Panther wasn’t even nominated. That has caused some predictors to panic and abandon ship on the category’s frontrunner, but I’m not that finicky. There’s also a so-called “bake-off” every year, where the ten films that make the shortlist meet with the voters and give them a chance to show off the pre-viz work and how they got to the finished product. Word off the street from the bake-off is that Solo and Welcome to Marwen impressed, and Mary Poppins Returns and Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom did not. So we could see a mammoth upset like Black Panther miss here in favor of Marwen or Solo, but for now, I’m thinking these five will take the ticket. The other films that made the shortlist not already listed include Ant-Man and the Wasp and Christopher Robin.

 

Best Sound Editing

And the nominees will be…

A Quiet Place
Avengers: Infinity War
Black Panther
First Man
Mission: Impossible – Fallout

The Golden Reel, the guild that handles sound editing, included all of these five films in their top category, so I feel confident in these five. We don’t have a shortlist for this category, so I’ll name just a few other potential nominees, like Roma, Ready Player One, Bohemian Rhapsody, and A Star is Born.

 

Best Sound Mixing

And the nominees will be…

A Quiet Place
A Star is Born
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man

Last year we saw all five nominees match in both the mixing and editing sound categories, but I’m not sensing a repeat this year. I do have Quiet Place, First Man, and Black Panther in both categories, so it’s not like we’re gonna have ten different films nominated between the two categories. Some other potential nominees are Roma, Mary Poppins Returns, and Mission: Impossible-Fallout.

 

Best Original Song

And the nominees will be…

“All the Stars” from Black Panther
“Girl in the Movies” from Dumplin’
“I’ll Fight” from RBG
“Shallow” from A Star is Born
“Trip a Little Light Fantastic” from Mary Poppins Returns

I feel like we’re covering a lot of ground here in this category, from a Sherman Brothers send-up to Dolly Parton to Lady Gaga to Dianne Warren to rap with Kendrick Lamar. That sounds about right for this category. I’m gonna highlight “The Place Where the Lost Things Go” from Mary Poppins Returns, “Revelation” from Boy Erased, and “Keep Reachin’” from Quincy as other nominees-to-be.

 

Best Original Score

And the nominees will be…

Black Panther
First Man
If Beale Street Could Talk
Isle of Dogs
Mary Poppins Returns

While these five films were all nominated for the Critics Choice award for Original Score, I feel like there’s some mystery left in this category. Since Mary Poppins Returns does use some themes and cues from the 1964 classic, it might not make the list, and the popular picks for what film’s score could overtake it include The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, A Quiet Place, and BlacKkKlansman.

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

And the nominees will be…

Mary Queen of Scots
Stan and Ollie
Vice

For whatever reason, the makeup branch only has three nominees each year, so if you’re asking why I don’t have five films down, that’s why. The other four films that made the shortlist are Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, Suspiria, and Border.

 

Best Production Design

And the nominees will be…

Black Panther
First Man
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma
The Favourite

I feel fairly confident in these five, especially since all five made the Art Directors Guild Award nominations. Typically we see fantasy, sci-fi, and period designs fill out the nominees, and I don’t see this year being any different. That being said, here’s a few other films that could surprise us: Crazy Rich Asians, Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, and Mary Queen of Scots.

 

Best Costume Design

And the nominees will be…

Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots
The Favourite

We do tend to see repeats over from the Production Design category to Costume Design, so it’s no surprise to me to see three films make both lists. A couple other ones to look out for are Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald, Crazy Rich Asians, Ballad of Buster Scruggs, and Colette.

 

Best Film Editing

And the nominees will be…

A Star is Born
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
Vice

This is always a tough category to call. There’s always so many potential nominees. You might be shocked by my picking Bohemian here, but after it’s BAFTA nod and making the ACE Eddie list for Drama at the Editing Guild, it’s reminiscent of I, Tonya last year where the editing worked around music, and that one surprised some last year. I can also see First Man falling short here, and Roma’s few edits, a la Gravity, Cuaron’s last film that also won this category at the Oscars, may also fall off the list. So who else is in play? Here’s my list: The Favourite, BlacKkKlansman, Widows, Black Panther, and Green Book.

 

Best Cinematography

And the nominees will be…

Black Panther
Cold War
First Man
Roma
The Favourite

This is another tougher category this year where we have more than five films that make sense for nominations. Even though Black Panther didn’t make the Cinematographer’s Guild, it’s Rachel Morrison, who made history last year as the first female cinematographer nominated at the Oscars. Since Panther will show a lot of force here in the techs, I sense she’ll fall in line, but at the expense of either A Star is Born or If Beale Street Could Talk. Also, don’t sleep on Cold War. It’s from the same director as Ida, which was nominated for Cinematography and Foreign Language three years ago. In this seven-competitor race, Star and Beale Street are the other two I have on the outside looking in.

 

Best Foreign Language Film

And the nominees will be…

Burning
Capernaum
Cold War
Roma
Shoplifters

It seems like all of these except Burning have appeared on every major list of Foreign Language films nominated by Globes, BAFTA, Critics Choice, etc. The lone outsider is Burning, which did spectacular at the Los Angeles Film Critics Awards, so it stands to reason that one fits in with the other four. The other four films that made the shortlist are The Guilty, Ayka, Birds of Passage, and Never Look Away.

 

Best Documentary Feature

And the nominees will be…

Free Solo
Minding the Gap
RBG
Three Identical Strangers
Won’t You be My Neighbor?

The doc feature category usually fills with either box office hits or docs about familiar subject matters like racism, famous figures, or exotic explorations. Sometimes these popular subject matters also grab bucks at the box office, and it seems like these five have made at least an approachable amount at the box office, enough to count. I have two other possible nominees: Hale County This Morning, This Evening and Shirkers. These are the only two that have any heat on them that made the shortlist.

 

Best Animated Feature

And the nominees will be…

Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

These five made the list of nominated films at the Golden Globes, and it seems like they will all repeat here Tuesday. The only trouble is that The Grinch has been doing respectably well with the various guild awards where applicable, and it may knock out something like Ralph or Mirai. For the sake of my predictions, and my sanity, I hope it’s these five.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

And the nominees will be…

A Star is Born
BlacKkKlansman
Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Crazy Rich Asians
If Beale Street Could Talk

I feel like four of these five have appeared everywhere possible for the adapted screenplay lists at the precursors, and all made it in at the WGA’s, so the wildcard here is Crazy Rich Asians. I equate it being nominated to Straight Outta Compton earning a nod for its Original Screenplay three years ago. Similarly, both films were viewed as culturally relevant at release, both were massive hits at the box office, both released in August, and both had an outcry from some that it should be in discussion for Oscars. And both were nominated in their respective years by the PGA. I think Crazy Rich Asians may end up in a few tech categories, but if it all falls the way that Compton did, the screenplay category will be the sole nod. However, Compton was recognized by the WGA and Asians wasn’t, so it might fall by the wayside in favor of something like Black Panther, which has the WGA nod, or First Man.

 

Best Original Screenplay

And the nominees will be…

Eighth Grade
Green Book
Roma
The Favourite
Vice

I feel like these five will make it in. The Favourite wasn’t eligible for the WGA, but the other four made it in, along with A Quiet Place, which does have a shot here. Also, the Critics Choice winner in this category, First Reformed, is definitely in play. And if Bohemian Rhapsody really, really, really goes over well, we could see that make it in, too.

 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

And the nominees will be…

Amy Adams for Vice
Claire Foy for First Man
Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone for The Favourite
Rachel Weisz for The Favourite

These five were nominated at the Globes, and feel like the safe bets. Keep in mind, Foy missed SAG and King missed both SAG and BAFTA, so there is some wiggle room. If any one actress is going to step in, I’d go with Margot Robbie in Mary Queen of Scots, who earned a SAG and BAFTA nod for her performance. There also is a small shot for Emily Blunt in A Quiet Place if that one does go over better than we’re expecting, and Blunt did get a SAG nod for it, and she may miss for Best Actress for Mary Poppins Returns, and to make up for that, she may get in this category.

 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

And the nominees will be…

Mahershala Ali for Green Book
Timothee Chalamet for Beautiful Boy
Adam Driver for BlacKkKlansman
Richard E. Grant for Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell for Vice

All five of these performances made it in at the Globes and BAFTA, but Rockwell missed both SAG and Critics Choice, the two places where his nearest competitor (fellow) Sam Elliott (A Star is Born) was nominated. So either way, it looks like one of the Sams is going to be nominated; the other four are locks. The only other nominee I could see is Michael B. Jordan in Black Panther, but he’s only been nominated at Critics Choice, and it’s too competitive in this category for that to be enough.

 

Best Actress in a Leading Role

And the nominees will be…

Yalitza Aparicio for Roma
Glenn Close for The Wife
Olivia Colman for The Favourite
Lady Gaga for A Star is Born
Melissa McCarthy for Can You Ever Forgive Me?

While Emily Blunt did get the SAG, Globe, and Critics Choice nods, I’m sensing that Mary Poppins Returns peaked a little too soon, and one safe place she should have been nominated was BAFTA, but no dice. A similar situation came up last year with Judi Dench in Victoria & Abdul, who was nominated in the same spots except Critics Choice, but she missed BAFTA and, in the end, the Oscars. In the meantime, Roma is on the rise, especially in the top categories, so I sense Yalitza will go along for the ride. Blunt is definitely still in play, but I think outside of these six, we’re all set.

 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

And the nominees will be…

Christian Bale for Vice
Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born
Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen for Green Book
John David Washington for BlacKkKlansman

These five all made it at Globes and SAG, with Washington missing out at BAFTA and Critics Choice, and he’s the weak link here. If it’s not him, critics favorite Ethan Hawke may get nominated for First Reformed, but he’s missed a lot of spots. Again, I’m confident it’s down to these six potentials.

 

Best Director

And the nominees will be…

Bradley Cooper for A Star is Born
Alfonso Cuaron for Roma
Peter Farrelly for Green Book
Yorgos Lantimos for The Favourite
Spike Lee for BlacKkKlansman

Four of these five made it to the DGAs, and have been nominated almost everywhere. Farrelly did miss BAFTA, and Yorgos missed Globes and DGA, but I feel like in a tight race, the PGA win for Green Book shows that that film is overcoming the controversies that are plugging away on it, and it’ll be just enough to knock out previously nominated director Adam McKay, though he is still someone who could pop up Tuesday and not surprise me. Occasionally, a foreign director gets in, and while we do have Cuaron in this year guaranteed, we could also see Pawel Pawlikowski make it in, too, like he did at BAFTA. Also, Black Panther’s director, Ryan Coogler, may not have been nominated anywhere at all this year, but a similar situation popped up last year with Paul Thomas Anderson for Phantom Thread. If there’s a weird nominee like that this year, Coogler’s it. Well, either him or Barry Jenkins for If Beale Street Could Talk, but that film needs to really do well.

 

Best Picture

And the nominees will be…

A Star is Born
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Green Book
Roma
The Favourite
Vice

On the sliding scale of potential Best Picture nominees, remember we get five to ten slots. In 2011, 12, 13, 16 and 17 we’ve seen nine films get in, and eight films made the cut in 2014 and 15. I’m predicting we’re going back to nine again this year, and it’ll be these nine. Mathematically, it’s pretty much impossible to land on ten films, but just in case, If Beale Street Could Talk would be the last nominee. I’m not sensing a broad list of other possible nominees outside these ten, but Crazy Rich Asians and A Quiet Place both made it on the list for PGA, so they have support, and if Cold War does manage a Director nod, I doubt it misses for Picture after that.

Alright, so one last thing I will do is highlight the films that I have down for receiving multiple nominations by number, just to further show how popular each film will be within the Academy. The most nominations I have down for a single film this year is 9, so here’s who gets between two and nine nominations:

9 – The Favourite, Black Panther, First Man
8 – Roma, A Star is Born
6 – Vice
5 – BlacKkKlansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Green Book
4 – Mary Poppins Returns
3 – Can You Ever Forgive Me?, If Beale Street Could Talk
2 – Cold War, Avengers: Infinity War, Isle of Dogs, A Quiet Place, RBG, Mary Queen of Scots

That’s all I have. Regardless of how well or poorly I do Tuesday morning, it’s been more than a privilege to share my thoughts, opinions, and critiques with all of you over the past few months. I’m very honored to have my little corner here on this site to let everybody know which direction the wind is blowing for the Oscars, and right or wrong, this minefield of predicting is always fun to walk through. We’ll see you all bright and early Tuesday morning.