Predicting the Big Winners: Who Will Come Out on Top? – Hot

The 2022 Oscars are almost here, so it’s time for guesses for three of the big categories: Best Animated Feature, Best Picture and Best Director.

Last year, Chloé Zhao made history by being the first woman of Asian descent to win Best Director. That brings the great total of female director wins to two. Will 2022 mark three wins?

The last time Steven Spielberg was nominated for Best Director was in 2013, almost 10 years ago, so it’s nice to see him in the running again for West Side Story. Will he be able to snag the title from the rest through sheer name recognition? We won’t know until the 2022 Oscars rolls on by on March 27th, but in the meantime, here are my predictions.

 

Animated Feature

Prediction: The Mitchells vs. the Machines

We chose Flee as one of the best movies we saw in 2021, so technically, it should be my top pick for this category. However, I do think that because this is an animated feature category, it wouldn’t be my pick to win since its visuals aren’t really on par with the other nominees. Definitely my top choice for documentary feature, but not so much for this category.

Marketing and brand recognition have huge advantage when it comes to awards like the Oscars. If we look at the winners just from the last few years, Disney/Pixar have dominated in the category. Last year, Soul took home the prize, and in 2020 it was Toy Story 4, while in 2017 and 2018, Zootopia and Coco won respectively. The rare exception occurred in 2019 with Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse. So, by that logic, the choices should whittle down to Encanto, Luca and Raya and the Last Dragon. Of these three films, Encanto is the strongest narrative-wise; its memorable and catchy songs also gives it an edge over the competition.

However, I’m going to go out on a limb and pick The Mitchells vs. the Machines. Much like Spider-Man: Into The Spider-Verse, The Mitchells vs. the Machines uses a mixture of 2D and 3D styles, drawing quite abundantly from meme culture to craft the humour of the movie. It has a top-tier narrative, eye-catching visuals and well-developed characters. Will this Netflix film break Disney’s current streak in this category? Guess we’ll find out this weekend.

 

Best Picture

Prediction: The Power of the Dog

Let’s see, The Power of the Dog took home the Golden Globes for Best Director and Best Motion Picture for Drama, and cinched the Best Film and Best Direction awards at the BAFTAs. You know which other film accomplished this same feat last year? Nomadland, which went on to win big at the Oscars. Oscar wins are rarely a surprise, and usually, these previous award shows are a good indicator of what’s to come.

However, there is some chatter on whether CODA could pull out a surprise win in the category. It won Best Picture at the Hollywood Critics Association Film Awards, and took home the Best Supporting Actor and Best Adapted Screenplay awards for the BAFTAs. Could this feel good coming of age film snatch the trophy from Campion’s more sombre The Power of the Dog? It’s possible, but after some back and forth, my money’s still on The Power of the Dog. Campion’s movie has the blueprints of an Oscar winning film all over it, so I will be very surprised if it doesn’t triumph in this category.

As for the other films: King Richard and Belfast are crowd-pleasing options but lacks that gravitas to be Oscar winning films, while Drive My Car doesn’t have the traction and word of mouth that Parasite had to overcome the fact that it’s a non-English speaking film. Dune shines on a technical level, but its narrative feels almost episodic in the way it plays out.

West Side Story might have triumphed before, but musical films aren’t exactly received with a similar enthusiasm these days. After all, Spielberg’s West Side Story was labelled a box office flop last year, making only US$36.6 million in its first three weeks, when it has a budget of over US$100 million. Like Dune, I think it has more of a chance in the technical categories, but it’s highly unlikely to take home Best Picture.

Much like West Side Story, Nightmare Alley is also a remake. Unfortunately, it’s not quite top tier del Toro, and comes off more as a tribute to the original than having any legs to stand on its own.

While I found Don’t Look Up pleasant enough – an opinion that might get me slaughtered by film Twitter – the film’s central metaphor is a bit too on the nose, and it isn’t as clever as it likes to think it is. Considering its the only film that has a rotten rating on Rotten Tomatoes, I don’t think there’s much likelihood of it getting the win.

Lastly, we have Paul Thomas Anderson’s Licorice Pizza. The film, while sweet and nostalgic, is a bit too restless and meandering, and doesn’t really have the same edge as the man’s previous films. I can’t see it besting The Power of the Dog in any way, or inciting much traction in the face of all these other astounding nominees.

 

Best Director

Prediction: Jane Campion

Not everyone’s very happy with Campion at the moment, due to her remarks to Venus and Serena Williams during her speech at the Critics Choice Awards. She did seem to be speaking off the cuff considering how unfocused the speech was, but at the same time, the comment was made in ignorance and was wholly unnecessary. I don’t think this faux pas will cost Campion her Best Director win, but let’s hope she plans her speech properly this time around.

Campion creates much like an artist does; broad strokes on a canvas, each frame coming together to weave an absorbing work of art. That’s what The Power of the Dog is: a sweeping masterpiece vibrating with emotional intensity.

The Power of the Dog definitely has its detractors as well, especially when it comes to pacing (frequent gripes are that it’s too much of a slow burn), but it’s the one film that is proficient on a narrative and technical level. The only director who can possibly best Campion in this category is Steven Spielberg, whose name is probably enough to get him some votes. But I do think that because his film is a remake of a previous Oscar winning film, this will actually count against him.

Also, it’s a rare thing that a film can win Best Picture and not take home the Best Director award as well, so if I chose The Power of the Dog for Best Picture, the film’s director should take home the big prize. However, this isn’t always the case as well, since Moonlight won Best Picture but Damien Chazelle took home the Best Director award for La La Land, not Barry Jenkins.

I guess we’ll see how spot on my predications are come Sunday night.

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