Predicting the Challenging Categories at Oscars 2019 – Top

Every year, there seems to be a few categories that have us all in a quandary, those categories you end up losing sleep over if you’re as obsessed with these things as I am. Well, this year’s crop of Academy Award nominees is no stranger to that idea. Since we’re in the final stretch of the awards season, let’s give some of those categories one more shot. Here are a few categories that I am currently throwing my hands up in the air about and saying “flip a coin!”

 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

From my first post, I had my money on Regina King taking the win here for If Beale Street Could Talk. Well, the odds are favoring her right now, but this year has been far from a cakewalk for her. While she picked up virtually every major critics prize for Supporting Actress, as well as the Golden Globe and Critics Choice awards, she failed to even be nominated for the Screen Actors Guild and BAFTA awards. Sorry for the devoted readers, but once again I must state the big comparison: Sylvester Stallone.

Three years ago, the collective “we” among Oscar predictors all had him winning for Creed, but his loss to Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies was largely chalked up to Sly’s lack of nominations at SAG and BAFTA, the exact places King has missed this year. Likewise, a non-Oscar nominee won at SAG (Emily Blunt this year, Idris Elba three years ago), and a Brit won at BAFTA. The Brit went on to win at the Oscars three years ago, and that same may happen this year for Rachel Weisz in The Favourite. For now, I’m sticking to my early guns on Regina winning, but this may be one I change later on.

Prediction: Regina King

 

Best Original Screenplay

Following the Writers Guild of America Awards, it now seems like Green Book has lost all momentum in this race. While it has been consistently nominated everywhere this year, it’s only win was early on at the Globes. Since then, First Reformed won at the Critics Choice Awards, The Favourite won at BAFTA, and Eighth Grade just won at WGA. Since Eighth Grade was overlooked by the Academy, we know it won’t win on Sunday, but the other three are certainly possibilities.

How I’m sizing this race up is in this way: First Reformed won a ton of critics prizes for its script, and the writer on the film has never been nominated before by the Oscars, despite a storied career that includes two of Martin Scorsese’s classics. I’m actually thinking right now that I’m going to pick the longshot: First Reformed. I feel that of all of Green Book’s unending controversies, the biggest offender is the Nick Vallelonga anti-Muslim tweet. I’ve been reluctant to say that would directly affects that film’s chances of winning but it seems to be the reason that it has failed to win another award since the Globes. As for The Favourite’s win at BAFTA, that can be explained away by the fact that it was the most awarded film of BAFTA. Also, both of these films won their only prize when First Reformed wasn’t nominated in the same category. That may be the thing that ends up sealing the deal.

Prediction: First Reformed

 

Best Sound Editing

As I mentioned in my BAFTA piece, there has been a long-standing tradition in recent years (minus The Revenant) where the winner at BAFTA for Best Sound goes on to win at least one of the sound categories at the Oscars. That very much may stand to be true if Bohemian Rhapsody wins Sound Mixing, as I’m predicting. However, the other category is not so easy.

Early on, I assumed as much by putting the “loudest” movie in, First Man. But that film has not been doing so hot recently, including zero BAFTA wins, and not a ton of attention from the Guilds outside of Visual Effects and things of that nature. And at the recent Motion Picture Sound Editors Guild Awards, A Quiet Place won for its foley effects, the equivalent to the sound effects people that traditionally point to the winner in this category. So for now, that’s who I’m going with, but Bohemian Rhapsody did have a win at the same ceremony for editing it’s music and dialogue, so that may surprise us.

Prediction: A Quiet Place

 

Best Visual Effects

I’m not feeling on confident in this category for a win for First Man, either. While the film undoubtedly is aided by the fact that it’s the only nominee in the category win nominations in other categories, there seems to be a lot of good feelings toward the film with the most effects, Avengers: Infinity War.

While you have to go back to Spider-Man 2 in 2004 the last time a superhero film won this category –and the only other time a superhero film won is back in 1978 with the first Superman– it does almost feel like a year where the superhero-bias in this category may not happen. Avengers did win big at the Visual Effects Society, and it does have a titular character from a Best Picture nominee in it, so it might also act as a counter-action vote, if you follow me. It’s another way for them to vote for Black Panther, which was not included in the list of nominees. For now, I’m sticking to First Man because it seems the most like a Best Picture nominee, and traditionally Best Picture nominees sweep this category, but I may be tempted before the week is out to join the crowds saying Avengers will win.

Prediction: First Man

While there may only be four categories listed here for who I think are the toughest calls, that doesn’t mean the other twenty categories are easy, signed-sealed-delivered wins. Some of the key decisions in these categories especially haven’t been made yet, but I have the deadline of the end of this week to figure it all out.