Southern California Braces for Rare Landfall as Hurricane Hilary Develops – Hot

Thursday Afternoon, August 17, 2023

In this El Niño year, there has been an expectation for higher tropical activity in the Pacific Ocean. The formation of Hurricane Hilary off the west coast of Mexico is fairly routine. The forecast and track, however, are out of the ordinary. It is a large storm in size, and after just forming, winds are already up to 105 mph Thursday afternoon.

Ideal conditions will allow rapid development to a Major Hurricane Category 3 intensity (over 111 mph winds). This may happen today. Growing to Category 4 or even 5 is a definite possibility! While it will eventually run into cooler water and weaken, Hilary should remain a tropical system when it reaches the Southwest US.

The larger-scale weather pattern that has provided a record Heat Dome in the United States this summer is part of the steering currents, expecting to bring this storm center into Southern California by Monday morning. This means as soon as this weekend, heavy flood waters are expected throughout the Desert Southwest.

Note: Some of the areas to be affected received record snow last winter AND record heat this summer. Often extremes breed extremes over the same locations.

Hurricane Hilary IR Satellite

The colder colors are brighter and represent higher cloud cover.

The perception of an eye already with a tight spiral around the center is a strong suggestion of a healthy storm rapidly developing.

Satellite Snapshot

• Hurricane Force Winds Extend: 70 miles from the center
• Tropical Storm Force Winds Extend: 275 miles from the center

 

National Hurricane Center

Official Status Report: 1 PM EDT Advisory

LOCATION…15.8N 108.4W

ABOUT 500 MI…805 KM SSE OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…105 MPH…165 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 14 MPH…22 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…965 MB…28.50 INCHES

 

True Color Satellite Loop: Close

 

Wide Satellite

 

Upper Level Pattern

Snapshot Monday Morning

The large Heat Dome in the central US will help to steer Hilary into Southern California and continue North!

 

Jet Stream Animation

Saturday Morning to Tuesday Morning

 

Hurricane Hilary Forecast Intensity

Of the 19 models in production, here:

• 15 have it reaching Category 3 (major hurricane 111 mph +)
• 8 have it reaching Category 4 (130 mph +)
• 2 have it reaching Category 5 (157 mph +)

 

National Hurricane Center Forecast Map

(Compare to model maps below)

Note that this track turns Hilary almost due north and skirts just off the Baja California of Mexico.

 

Forecast Focus

RAINFALL: 

Hilary is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of up to 10 inches, across portions of the Baja California Peninsula through Sunday night.

Flash flooding, locally significant, will be possible.

Heavy rainfall in association with Hilary is expected to impact the Southwestern United States from Friday through early next week, peaking on Sunday and Monday. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts in excess of 8 inches, will be possible across portions of southern California and southern Nevada.

 

Rainfall Forecast:

GFS Model Through Tuesday

This is the National Blend of Models. While this is showing a broad 2 to 4+ inches of rainfall, local expectations are up to 8 inches. This can lead to extreme Flash Flooding across the mountains and desert valleys.

 

Tropical Model Plots

HAFS-A Model Forecast

Thursday Evening to Monday Morning

 

GFS Model

Sunday Morning to Monday Night

 

GFS Snapshot Monday Morning

Live Windy Widget

Use the controls to scroll through the timeline or zoom in closer.

 

EXPLORE MORE

2023 Hurricane Season Forecast With An El Niño Watch

La Niña Has Ended. El Niño May Return By Fall

 

LAST WEEK:  Maryland Trek 10 For These Kids

I will have a follow-up and recap on our amazing week shortly.

 

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RESTATING MY MESSAGE ABOUT DYSLEXIA

I am aware there are some spelling and grammar typos and occasional other glitches. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer glitches I may miss. I have made a few public statements over the years, but if you are new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia, and found out during my second year at Cornell University. It didn’t stop me from getting my meteorology degree and being the first to get the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington region. One of my professors told me that I had made it that far without knowing and to not let it be a crutch going forward. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely correct! I do miss my mistakes in my own proofreading. The autocorrect spell check on my computer sometimes does an injustice to make it worse. I also can make mistakes in forecasting. No one is perfect at predicting the future. All of the maps and information are accurate. The ‘wordy’ stuff can get sticky.  There has been no editor that can check my work when I need it and have it ready to send out in a newsworthy timeline. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this site. She has taken it upon herself to edit typos when she is available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept this and perhaps proves what you read is really from me… It’s part of my charm.

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