The CFP: A Look at How Power 5 College Football Conferences Fall Short – Update

Let’s be clear: Nothing would be more surprising than to see the SEC left out of the College Football Playoff.

The SEC has been the most represented conference in the CFP with 11 appearances during the playoff’s nine seasons. Alabama (and Ohio State) are the only programs that have been ranked by the committee in all 54 rankings, and no team has had more playoff appearances than the Crimson Tide with seven. Alabama, though, already has one loss and entering Week 5 wasn’t in the Associated Press Top 10. LSU now has two losses following Saturday night’s last-second thriller against Ole Miss, and undefeated Georgia is still a mystery following a close win at Auburn.

“I don’t know how good a team we’ve got,” Georgia coach Kirby Smart said after the game. “I really don’t.”

Every conference has a cause for concern, but history reminds us some have more reasons to worry than others. The Pac-12 has the fewest CFP appearances of any Power 5 conference with two (Oregon and Washington) and has gone 1-2 in playoff games. The ACC has missed the playoff in each of the past two years. The Big 12 has reached the playoff five times — but has won only one game.

In the final season of a four-team playoff, somebody will be left out.

Based on the selection committee’s tendencies and protocols, here’s a look at how each Power 5 conference could be snubbed, ranked in order of the most-to-least likely scenarios:

Jump to a conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
Pac-12 | SEC

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ACC

The ACC could miss the playoff if: The league produces a two-loss conference champion. Or a team other than Florida State, North Carolina or Miami wins the league.

How it happens: Following Duke‘s loss to Notre Dame, the ACC has three realistic undefeated contenders remaining: FSU, UNC and Miami. All three have defeated at least one respectable Power 5 nonconference opponent, which gives their résumés a boost in the committee meeting room. Miami’s win against Texas A&M continues to be impressive, as does FSU’s win against LSU — even in spite of the Tigers’ loss to Ole Miss on Saturday. UNC has Power 5 wins against South Carolina and Minnesota, and if those teams finish above .500, the selection committee will consider them respectable nonconference wins.

All three teams still play each other. Miami is at North Carolina and at Florida State. And while Duke isn’t part of the CFP conversation, it can still win the ACC or play the role of spoiler along the way. The same goes for two-loss Clemson. And without divisions, the top two teams in the league will play each other again in the ACC championship. Much like in the Pac-12, the ACC’s biggest opponent could be itself. The difference is that it’s not as deep as the Pac-12 — and it already lost its most meaningful game against the Irish.

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Pac-12

The Pac-12 could miss the playoff if: The conference has another Friday night flop in its championship game, where its highest-ranked team loses to an opponent outside of the committee’s top-four range. Or … the league produces a two-loss conference champion when the other Power 5 champs either have one loss or are undefeated.

How it happens: It could be as simple as an upset in the Pac-12 title game, the last chance for the league’s top team to impress the selection committee during the only weekend of the year when the group gathers to watch the games in person. It happened in 2019, when Utah was No. 5 with a shot at the top four entering the championship game before losing to Oregon. It happened again last year when No. 4 USC lost to Utah for a second time and lost its CFP spot.

It could also be as straightforward as the league beating itself up. While there are still four undefeated teams (USC, Oregon, Washington and Washington State), they still have to face each other. Oregon plays all of them — and Utah. What separates USC on paper from its Pac-12 peers is its opportunity for a road win against a ranked nonconference opponent in Notre Dame. But if Notre Dame beats USC, the Irish would have the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Trojans and the better record with only one loss, although USC would have a conference title. This opens the possibility of Notre Dame finishing in the top four ahead of USC.

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Big 12

The Big 12 could miss the playoff if: A team other than Texas or Oklahoma wins the league. Or one-loss Big 12 champ Oklahoma loses a résumé debate to another Power 5 conference champion that played a stronger schedule.

How it happens: Texas and Oklahoma are the only remaining unbeaten Big 12 teams, and they face each other on Saturday. That assures the Big 12 will have at least one team with a loss in its conference title game. If the Longhorns lose to their rival but go on to run the table and win the Big 12, they have a strong chance to finish in the top four because of the win at Alabama — especially if they avenge their regular-season loss to the Sooners in the conference title game.

Oklahoma doesn’t have as much of a cushion because the Sooners’ nonconference wins were against Arkansas State, SMU and Tulsa, all Group of 5 teams. If the Sooners don’t beat Texas during the regular season, they might not have a regular-season win against a ranked opponent. Even if Oklahoma were to beat Texas in the Big 12 title game, the selection committee could still opt for another Power 5 champion with more wins against ranked opponents.

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Big Ten

The Big Ten could miss the playoff if: There’s an upset in the Big Ten championship game. Or Penn State or Michigan finishes with one loss and wins the Big Ten but loses a résumé debate with other Power 5 conference champions who have played stronger nonconference lineups. (Ohio State beat Notre Dame on the road, which is why it isn’t factored into this scenario. If the Buckeyes finish as a one-loss Big Ten champ or better, it’s hard to imagine the committee leaving them out.)

How it happens: Penn State, Michigan and Ohio State each finish with one loss, and either Penn State or Michigan wins the league. Penn State and Michigan need to beat the ranked Big Ten East teams on their schedule, because they will have a hard time compensating for it in their nonconference. Penn State’s nonconference wins would be against West Virginia, Delaware and UMass. Michigan has defeated East Carolina, UNLV and Bowling Green — none of which is a Power 5 opponent. While a one-loss Big Ten champ sounds like a lock, that’s not necessarily the case IF the following things happen:

• The SEC champ has one loss or is undefeated. (Alabama and Georgia are still trending this way.)

• Texas finishes as a one-loss or undefeated Big 12 champ. The Longhorns’ road win at Alabama is better than any nonconference win PSU and Michigan have.

• Florida State finishes as one-loss or undefeated ACC champ. The Noles’ win against LSU in Orlando (even after the Tigers’ loss to Ole Miss), plus a win against even a subpar Florida team would trump the nonconference résumés of both Michigan and Penn State.

• USC beats Notre Dame and finishes as a one-loss or undefeated Pac-12 champ. This scenario is specific to the Trojans because a road win against Notre Dame would separate them not just from Penn State and Michigan, but also Oregon, Washington and Utah.

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SEC

The SEC could miss the playoff if: Alabama finishes as a two-loss conference champion and loses the head-to-head tiebreaker with Texas — plus the Big Ten, ACC and Pac-12 champs each have one loss or none. Or Georgia doesn’t win the East AND a two-loss team wins the SEC.

How it happens: Every team in the SEC West already has at least one loss, so the notion of a two-loss SEC West team winning the league is hardly inconceivable — especially considering three-loss LSU won the division last year. If Alabama loses one conference game — and the Oct. 7 trip to Texas A&M might be the most difficult regular-season opponent remaining — the Tide can still win the West and then would have a chance to defeat Georgia IF the Bulldogs win the East.

Missing the playoff becomes even more realistic if Georgia doesn’t win the East. It can also happen, though, if Georgia loses to Tennessee, still wins the East, but loses in Atlanta. A two-loss team has never made the CFP, and while that doesn’t mean it can’t happen, it’s far more difficult for the committee to justify it if the team didn’t win its conference. Plus, the selection committee would penalize Georgia for its weak nonconference schedule, which includes UT Martin, Ball State and UAB. Without wins against Alabama and Tennessee, Georgia wouldn’t have much on its résumé to impress the committee.

Which would leave two-loss SEC champ Alabama.

While the selection committee’s tiebreakers aren’t weighted, Alabama’s head-to-head loss to Texas would be hard to ignore, especially if the Longhorns also win their league and finish with one loss or better. In order for the SEC to left out entirely, though, the other Power 5 conference champions would also have to be better than Bama.

Based on what’s happened so far, it’s not far-fetched to think Florida State can win the ACC with one loss or better; the Pac-12 can produce a top-four champion; Texas can win the Big 12 with one loss or better; and the Big Ten champion can do the same.