Top Players to Focus on: Joshua Kelley and Derrick Henry – Update

The only thing more fun than watching one of the best fantasy football running backs in all the land is getting to watch two of them in the same game! Evaluating the Los Angeles Chargers fantasy prospects takes you to the tight end position while the Tennessee Titans fantasy evaluation centers around the receivers.

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Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans

• Spread: Chargers -3
• Total: 45 points
• Chargers implied points: 24
• Titans implied points: 21

Quarterbacks

Justin Herbert: What we saw from the Chargers (40 rush attempts against 33 pass attempts) is something I very much expect to be the exception and not the norm. The success on the ground resulted in Herbert throwing for only 228 yards and a score in the shootout with Miami, though his TD plunge did help him save face for our purposes.

It’s worth noting that Herbert failed to throw a touchdown on 42 attempts against these Titans in Week 15 last season, but again, not something that I’m worried about. Tennessee’s secondary is full of holes and gave up over 60 receiving yards to three Saints in their Week 1 loss.

There should be no concerns about Herbert this week (even if Austin Ekeler were to sit). He’s a top-five option at the position for me.

Ryan Tannehill: It’s never good news when your WR1’s target count is higher than your QB rating.

But that is exactly what happened in New Orleans last Sunday for Tannehill. We never expect volume from Tennessee, but this level of inefficiency is next level.

Tannehill is a borderline starter in two-QB formats, even against a defense that gave up 466 yards to Tua Tagovailoa last week.

Running Backs

Austin Ekeler: An ankle injury landed Ekeler on the injury report coming out of Week 1 and he was officially ruled OUT for this game yesterday afternoon.

Joshua Kelley: Kelley essentially matched Ekeler in snaps (trailed 41-38) while carrying 16 times, but his time on the field was more a product of a high play volume across the board. Regardless, he projects as the man in the backfield of an explosive offenses and that deserves your attention, even if efficiency is unlikely.

On a per-carry basis last season, the Titans were the best run defense in the NFL (3.4). That means that a bet on Kelley is more of a bet on volume than per touch production. He squeaks onto my FLEX radar, but I believe it is the pass catchers in this offense who gain the most value from this injury.

MORE: Fantasy Football’s Week 2 Burning Start/Sit Questions

Kelley can be rostered as insurance, but I don’t have much confidence that he holds standalone value at any point this season when Ekeler is healthy.

Derrick Henry: How did the Titans keep this thing close last December when they played? The usual — Derrick Henry.

Henry ran for 104 yards and a score while also finding time to lead Tennessee in receptions (four) and receiving yards (59). There are going to be weeks to fade The Big Dog on DFS or lower him in annual ranks, but this ain’t it. If Tennessee manages to keep this tight, Henry will finish closer to RB1 than RB10 this week.

Wide Receivers

Keenan Allen: The veteran receiver racked up a 29% target share against the Dolphins last week. His fantasy day (six catches for 76 yards) could have been much better if he wasn’t tackled on the inch-yard line (initially ruled a touchdown).

Interesting wrinkle from Kellen Moore on early explosive to Keenan Allen. #Chargers came out in 12 personnel. Dolphins matched with base. LAC went empty with two TEs and RB to right and Allen and Mike Williams to left. Got Allen matched up with a LB, and he won easily. pic.twitter.com/3eiIMm640i

— Daniel Popper (@danielrpopper) September 12, 2023

Allen caught 8 of 9 targets in this meeting a season ago, and I expect similar success this time around. Due to the volume of this passing game, the floor here is appealing, and if a 36-yard bomb early in Week 1 is a sign of things to come in terms of his route tree, Allen will be in the top-10 conversation at the position before the month ends.

Mike Williams: Week 1 was textbook Williams in the eyes of skeptics: He missed time with an injury, disappeared for other chunks, and picked up 34% of his fantasy points when the defense was in prevent (17-yard catch on 3rd-and-29).

Rome wasn’t built in a day, people. Herbert’s rate of throwing 20+ yards downfield was up in Game 1 under Kellen Moore, and that is fueling my optimism in having Williams again ranked as a low-end WR2 this weekend.

Rashid Shaheed and Chris Olave both burned this Titans secondary for 40-yard receptions last weekend, and Williams remains the Charger most likely to expose that weakness. He’s locked into lineups, especially given his growing target expectation with the Ekeler news.

Quentin Johnston: Is it possible that we overestimated the depth of pass catchers in a Moore-led offensive attack? Johnston was hardly on the field before Williams left with the head injury and finished with just 11 yards on three targets.

The big physical profile remains appealing, but appealing in the same way that Josh Palmer made sense in this offense last season — only if one of the top two wideouts is sidelined.

DeAndre Hopkins: You’ve heard the saying that a “rising tide lifts all boats”? Well, in Tennessee, a lack of tide grounds all boats.

Hopkins earned a 39.4% target share at full strength with no weather concerns in Week 1 and finished with just 10 fantasy points.

Let me put that a different way. One of the better receivers of this generation saw 13 targets and was outproduced for the week by Nico Collins and Josh Reynolds. Nuk was clear and away the top threat in this passing game — targeted on 12 of 36 routes while Nick Westbrook-Ikhine and Treylon Burks combined for 10 looks on 71 routes — and he finished as WR29 for the week.

That’s right where I have Hopkins ranked for this week. He’s firmly in the “talented receiver whose quarterback I can’t trust tier” with guys like Terry McLaurin, Garrett Wilson, and Christian Watson.

Treylon Burks: I understand that he missed time this preseason, but a 9.1% target share in Week 1 just isn’t going to cut it.

This low-volume offense is going to have issues supporting a single viable fantasy receiver, and if Burks can’t earn targets at a plus-15% clip, he has no real chance to ever crack my top 40 at the position.

His profile looks a lot like that of Drake London’s at the moment (talented prospect lacking opportunity).

That has him a ways away from my starting lineup until I see something different for consecutive games.

Tight Ends

Gerald Everett: As mentioned previously, the balance shown in this offense last week is not something I expect to sustain, which means better days are ahead for Everett (two catches for 21 yards vs. Miami).

I’m holding Everett steady as a fringe top-10 tight end for the rest of the season, and a leaky Titans pass defense is as good a time as any to pay off that optimism.

Chigoziem Okonkwo: A game plan void of ways to get this athlete the ball could have all been forgotten if Tannehill could have put the ball in his zip code on a trick play run to perfection, but, alas, such is life as a Tennessee pass catcher these days.

I still think the physical tools are in place to offer upside in the right spots, but until we see this passing game improve, Okonkwo’s an afterthought in all formats and ranks outside my top 15 at the position for Week 2.

Should You Start Gerald Everett or Kyle Pitts?

I hate that this is a question this early in the season, and I hate it even more than I’m already on the anti-Pitts side of it.

While the Falcons are hellbent on passing the ball as few times as possible, I expect the Chargers to take to the air against an iffy Titans secondary, thus giving Everett the opportunity edge.

Pitts is a good player, but we play a game that rewards volume, and he is lacking in that regard — by design!

Should You Start DeAndre Hopkins or Michael Pittman?

We are looking at two WR1s with question marks under center. That is why I have both of these talented receivers outside of my top 20 at the position.

While we saw Pittman’s aDOT continue to crash, he did show YAC potential last week, and we saw Anthony Richardson look just fine in his debut. I prefer Pittman in this heads-up situation, thanks in large part to the upside potential at the quarterback position.