Which Movies Released in December 2019 Stand a Chance? – Great

We are coming very close to the start of the nominating period in the Oscar race, where groups like the Hollywood Foreign Press, Screen Actors Guild, and the Broadcast Film Critics societies all start to sound off. But we still have a whole month’s worth of films to hit wide release, so we’ll discuss the final entries in the Oscar race, release-wise, and how big of an impact they will have on the race.

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The Aeronauts | December 6th

Director: Tom Harper

I have to admit, I become more and more curious about The Aeronauts the closer it gets but that’s only for my personal viewership. The story of weather balloon explorers Amelia Wren and James Glaisher may have some love for its Visual Effects, and the Sound categories to boot, but it won’t be a very likely contender for stars Felicity Jones and Eddie Redmayne. It does have an 83% on Rotten Tomatoes, for what that’s worth, but unfortunately Amazon won’t be rising high with this one.

 

Bombshell | December 13th

Director: Jay Roach

Jay Roach’s follow-up to Trumbo, which was a pretty consistent player in 2015’s Oscar race, may have another winner on his hands with the story of Fox News circa 2016 and the outing of longtime boss Roger Alies by a trio of female Fox alum. While the film is still under review embargo, the reactions from early screenings were very positive, and Bombshell is running the chance of being a multi-nominated film.

I’d say Best Picture, Actress for Charlize Theron, Supporting Actress for Margot Robbie, Original Screenplay, and Makeup and Hairstyling are for-sure bets, and Best Director, Supporting Actor for John Lithgow, and Film Editing are also on the table. We’ll see if the long-delayed reviews hurt or help Lionsgate’s chances.

 

Richard Jewell | December 13th

Director: Clint Eastwood

Clint Eastwood steps back into the Oscar race again this year with Richard Jewell, the true story of a security guard who helped stop a bombing at the 1996 Atlanta Olympics, and was later accused of being responsible for it. The film just premiered at the AFI Film Fest, and the reviews are looking very good for Eastwood with 91% so far on Rotten Tomatoes.

Most of the reviews are highlighting the performance of Paul Walter Houser, who will contend for Lead Actor. Some are also saying it has a chance for Best Picture, Director for Eastwood, the Sound and Film Editing categories, and maybe for Adapted Screenplay. It’s a little early to bet big on Jewell, but if it does well at the Golden Globes, the other awards bodies may follow suit.

 

Uncut Gems | December 13th

Director: The Safdie Brothers

The Safdie Brothers are really riding high on this movie, and it may prove to be a bigger Oscar player than their last entry, Good Time. It’s already an indie favorite at the Gotham Awards (3 nominations) and the Indie Spirit Awards (5 nominations). Adam Sandler stars as Howard Ratner, a jeweller in New York’s diamond district who gets in over his head with shady deals and debts.

Sandler may be the best hope for the film at the Oscars, where he stands a decent chance of landing a nomination. The film will run in the Comedy/Musical categories at the Golden Globes, where Sandler again will be in contention. Otherwise, the script has its fans (it would run in the Original category), and it may be a dark horse contender from A24 for Best Picture. Newcomer Julia Fox has also received some love, so she may get lucky in the Supporting Actress race, too.

 

Seberg | December 13th

Director: Benedict Andrews

Another Amazon contender this year is Seberg, the biographical tale of actress Jean Seberg, who was surveilled by the FBI due to her relationship with radical Haik Jamal. Seberg started out as a strong competitor due to its opening at the Venice Film Festival, but critics are fairly mixed on it with 44% from Rotten Tomatoes. About the only shot the film has is Lead Actress for Kristen Stewart, but that feels like a long shot.

 

A Hidden Life | December 13th

Director: Terrence Malick

One filmmaker we can never discount at the Oscars is Terrence Malick. While he hasn’t hit it big at the Oscars since the 3-time nominated The Tree of Life in 2011, A Hidden Life is arguably his best chance at getting some Oscar love since. A Hidden Life follows a simple farming family in Nazi Germany who are unsympathetic to Hitler and his cause, and the consequences met with that stance.

Having seen the trailer a number of times, the film looks gorgeous, and I have it being included as one of the five nominees for Best Cinematography. It’s also riding high off a nomination at the Indie Spirit Awards for Best Film. Malick isn’t for everyone, though, and the Rotten Tomatoes 79% rating may be a bellwether for the movie not being a universally loved movie. But I’d still bet on Malick being a contender for Best Director. That will likely be where the conversation for this movie starts and ends.

 

Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker | December 20th

Director: J.J Abrams

The final entry in the Skywalker Saga for the franchise, we’ve seen all four of the Disney-era Star Wars films receive one form or another of Oscar love. All four (Force Awakens, Rogue One, Last Jedi and Solo) nominated for Visual Effects, Rogue One was added Sound Editing, and both Force Awakens and Last Jedi had all those plus Score and Sound Mixing. Force Awakens even entered into the Film Editing category.

So it stands to reason that Rise of Skywalker will be nominated for at least Visual Effects, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Original Score, especially Score since it will be the last Star Wars score from John Williams (and sadly could be his last nomination ever if his health continues to be up and down). As far as anything else, I doubt Best Picture is in Lucasfilm’s scopes, but Costume Design, Production Design, Makeup and Hairstyling, Film Editing, and Cinematography may be up possibilities.

 

Cats | December 20th

Director: Tom Hooper

Think of this movie what you will (I’m not looking forward to it), Cats may end up being a moderate player through the awards season. Based off the long-running Broadway smash, Tom Hooper’s latest adaptation is going to be gunning for several technical nominations, including Visual Effects, Production and Costume Design, and maybe Best Supporting Actress for Jennifer Hudson.

I stated at the beginning of the season she was my early frontrunner, but I’ve let that go for two reasons: there is no real excitement around the film’s actors, and Universal will have a much better shot with 1917. I’d say the HFPA will be a much better bet, where it could receive a few nominations in those Comedy/Musical categories.

 

Little Women | December 25th

Director: Greta Gerwig

Christmas Day always offers a few big Oscar players, and Little Women may be one of the more nominated of this bunch. The eighth adaptation of Louisa M. Alcott’s beloved novel, from Oscar-nominated director Greta Gerwig, will be another stoke in the fire for Sony and co., who also have Once Upon a Time in Hollywood on the big corporation side, and A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood and Pain and Glory on the independent/acquisition side.

As for Little Women, I see it being nominated in 5 categories: Best Picture, Actress for Saoirse Ronan, Adapted Screenplay, Costume Design, and Production Design. It definitely has the potential to be nominated for more, including Best Supporting Actress for Florence Pugh, Director for Gerwig, Original Score, and maybe Best Supporting Actor for Timothee Chalamet. The early screenings have gone well for the film, but nothing is certain yet.

 

1917 | December 25th

Director: Sam Mendes

Up until this last weekend, the last big question mark in the Oscar race was Sam Mendes’ WWI drama 1917. Now we’ve heard early reactions, and they are out of this world good. The film is set up to appear as one continuous shot as two young British soldiers travel across country as they try and warn a brigade of an impending, unwinnable battle.

So it goes without saying Best Cinematography will be a near-guarantee for at least a nomination, and since it’s one of the all-time greats, Roger Deakins, we can pretty much say he’ll be in a great position to win. I’d also say the same for the film’s composer, Thomas Newman, who has worked with Mendes six times prior, and received 14 Oscar nominations in the music categories, but has never won. I’d say this will be the one to break his streak; 15th time’s the charm.

Elsewhere, the film looks solid for Best Picture, Director, Production Design, Sound Editing, and Sound Mixing. I’m not so hot on the idea of it being nominated for Film Editing since another “one-shot style” film, Birdman, missed in that category, and last year Roma, which relied on many long takes, did not get nominated, either. Costume Design and Visual Effects will also be up in the air, and maybe Makeup and Hairstyling, so there’s a shot that it ends up being one of the more nominated films come Oscar morning.

 

Just Mercy | December 25th

Director: Destin Daniel Cretton

Another Christmas Day entry is Warner Brothers’ Just Mercy. Telling the story of a lawyer (Michael B. Jordan) fighting against the system for an innocent man (Jamie Foxx) on death row, the film comes from Destin Daniel Cretton, whose previous films have all missed the Oscar boat, and unfortunately Just Mercy may be the next in line to do so.

Like Jennifer Hudson in Cats, my early bet for Best Supporting Actor was Jamie Foxx, but despite good reviews out of the Toronto International Film Festival, Just Mercy hasn’t been talked about much since, and with another Warner Brothers film, Richard Jewell, rising after a better response at AFI Fest, Just Mercy may end up with a single nomination for Foxx, or Lead Actor for Michael B. Jordan, but its other prospects are few and far between.

 

Clemency | December 27th

Director: Chinonye Chukwu

To close out 2019, we have a fan favorite from Sundance (which took home the Grand Jury Prize), the prison drama Clemency. Chukwu’s film follows a death row warden dealing with a breakdown as a new inmate prepares for death. Clemency might end up with some love for its cast, but its distributor, Neon, has bigger fish to fry with South Korea’s Parasite rising fast in the Best Picture category.

However, I would say Clemency has the jump on Parasite with the potential acting nominees. Alfre Woodard and Aldis Hodge were both nominated at the Gotham Awards, and the film, Woodard, and screenplay were nominated at the Indie Spirit Awards, so it’s already shown some health in the awards season. Hodge will contend in Supporting Actor, and he has a shot, but Woodard may be the best bet for Lead Actress. Otherwise, I’d say Neon should focus more heavily on Parasite.

MORE OSCARS:
– Oscars 2020: Early SAG 2020 Nomination Predictions
– Oscars 2020: Updated Golden Globe Predictions (November 2019)
– Oscars 2020: Which November 2019 Movies Have A Chance?