Which movies released in November 2019 have a shot at success? – Top

Now that we are down to two months left in the calendar year, November is where we typically see a few blockbusters light up the box office, a few festival favorites finally hit wide release, and a few high-profile studio films also debut. Next month will be no exception, and I wouldn’t be surprised if some of the more nominated films this year see release in that month. There’s a lot to get through, so here we go.

 

The Irishman | November 1st

Arguably the most-anticipated of this year’s Oscar films is Martin Scorsese’s The Irishman. Telling the story of Frank Sheeran, a hitman who may have been responsible for the death of infamous teamster Jimmy Hoffa, and may have been egged on by the head of the Bufalino crime family, Russell.

This reported three and a half hour epic seems to come with all the trimmings: Oscar winning director Martin Scorsese, the dream-team trio of Robert De Niro, Al Pacino, and Joe Pesci, a script by Oscar winner Steven Zaillian, technical work by Scorsese’s usual suspects (editor Thelma Schoonmaker, cinematographer Rodrigo Prieto), and a perfect 100% on Rotten Tomatoes through its first screenings. It’s pretty hard to beat that.

As far as the Oscar prospects go, I have it being nominated in several fields: Best Picture, Director, Actor for De Niro, Supporting Actor for Pesci, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, Production Design, Costume Design, Film Editing, and Visual Effects. That’s 10 nominations right there, and there’s a chance it lands nominations in the Sound categories, Makeup and Hairstyling, and Pacino may also receive some love from the actors branch (or Pesci misses).

Every year there seems to be a high profile release from an acclaimed director, and while they sometimes fall short of expectations (The Post, War Horse, Silence), The Irishman may be the high point of Scorsese at the Oscars.

 

Terminator: Dark Fate | November 1st

The sixth entry in the seemingly never-ending Terminator franchise sees the return of James Cameron, and an R-rating, though I sense this will not be a heavy Oscar contender. It does have a shot at Best Visual Effects and the Sound categories, but I very much doubt this will work out as well as the last time Cameron was involved with a Terminator film. That was Terminator 2: Judgment Day, which won 4 Oscars and was nominated for two more. For Dark Fate, it will be lucky to have one nod come Oscar night.

 

Motherless Brooklyn | November 1st

Edward Norton’s big screen debut as a director was met with a mixed reception at Telluride and the Toronto International Film Festival, and seems to be a non-player at the Oscars this year. The story of a Tourettes-suffering detective in 1950s Brooklyn may end up with some love, though, for Norton’s lead performance, which many have praised, and the screenplay also has a shot. Since it is also a period piece, I wouldn’t fall over with shock if it landed a tech nod or two, but as I’ve said before, sometimes it’s better to have critical claim or critical scorn than to be critically mixed.

 

Arctic Dogs | November 1st

Also being released on the first weekend of November is Arctic Dogs, and I’ll be short and sweet with this one: because of its late release, it has a slight hope of being nominated for Best Animated Feature, but nothing else. Even then, that category may be filled with Pixar, Disney, Dreamworks, and some foreign fare, so I wouldn’t bet heavy on Arctic Dogs.

 

Harriet | November 1st

Next there’s Harriet, the biopic on slavery hero Harriet Tubman from director Kasi Lemmons. Unfortunately, like Motherless Brooklyn, Harriet suffered a mixed reception at TIFF, which leaves it in weaker shape than expected. A 63% from Rotten Tomatoes isn’t a death sentence, but it goes without saying a higher percentage would have helped.

For now, though, star Cynthia Erivo is still a heavy favorite to be nominated for Lead Actress for her portrayal of Tubman, and the cinematography from two-time Oscar winner John Toll could be nominated, but outside of a possible other tech nomination or two, I’d say Harriet is another contender that will disappoint this awards season.

 

Marriage Story | November 6th

It’s funny how Netflix went from having all their attention last year on Roma, which tied for most nominated film last year, to having what could be the two most nominated films this year. Marriage Story, a sad modern tale about how divorce can break a family, has been riding very high after the festival circuit wrapped up. It has nearly universal critical acclaim, and was the runner-up for the Audience Award at TIFF (Jojo Rabbit beat it out). And like The Irishman, this film assembles quite a number of potential nominations.

I think Best Picture, Best Director, Best Actor for Adam Driver, Actress for Scarlett Johansson, Supporting Actor for Alan Alda, Supporting Actress for Laura Dern, Original Screenplay, Original Score, and Film Editing nominations are likely. I’d also say Cinematography is on the table, though that will be a stacked category.

It could also be the first film since Shakespeare in Love to be nominated at the Screen Actors Guild Awards for all the film categories (except Stunt Ensemble), which would be an astonishing achievement. But if one film this year is going to do it, I’d bet on Marriage Story.

 

Honey Boy | November 8th

Then comes Honey Boy, a biopic about Shia LaBeouf that he co-wrote and has a supporting role in. While I’m not very high on this film’s Oscar chances, it does have a lot of steam building up behind it. With a 97% on Rotten Tomatoes and a lot of praise for its cast, including LaBeouf, Lucas Hedges, and Noah Jupe, Honey Boy may very well benefit if it does well at the Indie Spirit Awards.

From there, it’s up to the Oscar voters if they feel comfortable watching it since LaBeouf is still considered a bit controversial. While his solid lead performance in Peanut Butter Falcon may end up being the better bet this year, having more than one film out there won’t hurt.

 

Ford v Ferrari | November 15th

After performing well at both Telluride and TIFF, it seemed like this was one film that jumped higher into the Best Picture race than I originally thought. Ford v Ferrari, about the 1966 24 Hours of Le Mans and America’s efforts to win it, looks very promising in a few categories like Best Film Editing and the two Sound categories, where it could win all three outright.

While I think it has some work to do to receive nominations in Acting, Directing, and Writing categories, I do think it’s a solid pick for Best Picture because of the machismo feel to it. We see films like this nominated often, other examples including Mad Max: Fury Road and Hacksaw Ridge, and Ford v Ferrari fits right into that mold.

 

The Good Liar | November 15th

I’m not sold on this movie, but that doesn’t mean it won’t do well this awards season. A seemingly darker romantic heist movie with two charismatic older stars would normally be something in my wheelhouse, but this just doesn’t feel like it will have much luck outside the Hollywood Foreign Press Association.

The Globes have nominated Helen Mirren eight times in the past for film work, and seven times for television work, so I wouldn’t sleep on her being nominated this year. Likewise, Ian McKellen has his fans at the Globes, and has received three nominations in the past across film and television, so he’s also in the realm of possibility. Otherwise, I’d be a little surprised if it lands nominations elsewhere in the season.

 

The Report | November 15th

Another heavy-hitter in the Oscar race this year is The Report, and this seems to be Amazon’s front-and-center piece this time around. Telling the story of staffer Daniel Jones and his efforts to unearth the illegal torture efforts being done in the Middleeast following the 9/11 attacks, The Report feels a lot like Spotlight and The Post, a Best Picture winner and nominee, respectively.

That being said, I am beginning to feel a lack of enthusiasm around this movie, despite a strong start at Sundance earlier this year and an 86% on Rotten Tomatoes. While Annette Bening seems to be a lock to be nominated in Supporting Actress, Adam Driver’s efforts will largely be focused on Marriage Story, and the film’s screenplay, direction, and editing are likely to be usurped by heavier competition. I still think it’s one that may be bigger than what others are suggesting, but the smoke is beginning to clear, and this may end up being a near-dud.

 

Waves | November 15th

One film that wasn’t on my radar until its strong responses at Telluride and TIFF was Waves, and while I’m not sure it’s a guarantee to be a big player, I can see a scenario or two where it earns some love. Waves is all about an African-American family living in the suburbs of South Florida as everything changes after the loss of a close friend.

The big talk of the film out of the festivals was the work from the ensemble, particularly Sterling K. Brown as the patriarch of the family, and the script from writer/director Trey Edward Shults. The word is A24 is angling Brown for Supporting Actor, which could happen, but I’d be a little concerned about Waves landing a nod for Original Screenplay, since that category is pretty tight. Additionally, the score from Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross could also be on the table.

 

Frozen II | November 22nd

I hate to handicap it this way (since it seems to be the case every year), but the race for Best Animated Feature seems to come down to Disney vs. Pixar. The trailers for Frozen II have wowed so far, and it looks like Toy Story 4 is the only film standing in its way to winning the Animated prize. We’ll also see if it can break into the Original Score category this time around (the first Frozen was robbed), and if it will repeat in the song category for “Into the Unknown”, which seems to be the big song Disney is backing.

 

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood | November 22nd

Third to Irishman and Marriage Story, I feel A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood is the most primed of the November releases for Oscar success. The Mister Rogers biopic is primed for mass love from seemingly every awards body this season, from the Globes to the Oscars. The heavy bets are Best Picture, Supporting Actor for Tom Hanks, and Adapted Screenplay. Even if it ends up with only those three nominations, that’s still a good response.

Director Marielle Heller could also be nominated, as well as a tech nod or two, and since music was such a large part of Rogers’ life, the score for the film, from Heller’s brother, may also be a sentimental nomination from the music branch. It’s all boosted, too, from a strong showing at TIFF and 96% from Rotten Tomatoes.

 

Dark Waters | November 22nd

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RvAOuhyunhY

While Dark Waters skipped the festival circuit, we can’t count Todd Haynes out of the Oscar race just yet. Waters will focus on how a corporate lawyer unearthed Du Pont chemical’s tainting of a Pennsylvania town’s water supply.

While I find the trailer to be a little overcooked with the dramatic music and everything, the end result, I think, will be a solid thriller with a good chance at nominations in Adapted Screenplay and Best Actor for Mark Ruffalo. Outside of that, I wouldn’t bet too heavy on the film.

 

The Two Popes | November 27th

Heading into the last weekend of November, we see Netflix’s third entry on this list, The Two Popes. Told from the perspective of Pope Benedict XVI (Anthony Hopkins) before he hands down the title to future Pope Francis (Jonathan Pryce) and his reservations about him, I find myself being more interested in this film as time goes on.

That first trailer didn’t wow me, and I run hot-and-cold with the film’s screenwriter, Anthony McCarten (who adapted his own play for the film). Still, the performances from Pryce and Hopkins look solid, and I wouldn’t mind seeing a make-up nomination for Pryce, who was sorely missing from the Supporting Actor category last year with his work in The Wife. The script also has a strong chance of earning a nomination, and the film itself may end up in the Best Picture category, but with two other heavy-hitters from the same distributor, Netflix shouldn’t count their chickens before they hatch.

 

Knives Out | November 27th

While his last film split the fandom down the middle, Rian Johnson seems to be back on track with a crowd-pleasing whodunit in Knives Out. Basically a modern remake of Clue, I think this is a film that the Golden Globes will like a lot.

Since it will be competing in the Comedy/Musical races, it could easily earn nods for the film and for Lead Actor Daniel Craig. Beyond that, Best Original Screenplay may be the sole Oscar nomination, unless we see it earn nominations at the Producers Guild Awards or do well at SAG or BAFTA.

 

Queen & Slim | November 27th

I have a feeling this may be a late hit in the Oscar race this year. This modern-day version of Bonnie and Clyde (but told from an African-American perspective) has had two spectacular trailers, and looks like it has two head-turning performances by Daniel Kaluuya and newcomer Jodie Turner-Smith.

Lena Waithe co-wrote the script, which could also break into the Original Screenplay category, and it could turn into a dark horse Best Picture nominee, too. Queen & Slim will have its premiere at the AFI Fest in mid-November, so we’ll have a better idea of its Oscar prospects by then.

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