Will Roma Sweep the 2019 Oscars? Predictions for Final Winners – Top

To quote Principal Vernon from The Breakfast Club, “Well, well. Here we are.” Yes, it’s the end of the journey to the Oscars. The last chance to predict who will be in the winner’s circle and who will be given the cold shoulder. This has been, as displayed by massive upsets at nearly every big awards show, a trying year for us Oscar predictors. There is an air of mystery still surrounding a few of the top awards that will be handed out on Sunday, and it’s now time for the no guts, no glory moment where I lay down my final, unequivocal, take-it-or-leave-it winners predictions for Hollywood’s biggest award show. One last time, let’s get into it.

 

Best Live Action Short

And the winner will be…Marguerite

With controversies surrounding the early frontrunner Detainment, this has become a two-way race between the safe but charming short film Marguerite and the more timely and challenging Skin. From what I hear from Oscar voting results thus far (and remember I’m hearing this second-hand), those who blindly voted in this category really just picked the one that sounded the best, which may give something like Detainment or Marguerite the edge. However, for those who watched the five, again from second-hand reports, the overwhelming favorite seems to be Skin. So it’s a gamble to take Marguerite, but one that may end up paying off.

 

Best Documentary Short

And the winner will be…Black Sheep

Another reason I’m not picking Skin is that it’s not common to see two race-relation films sweep these short categories. There’s a chance it does happen, but there’s arguably less competition in this category, making Black Sheep an easier win than Skin. There are some interesting subject matters explored in the doc shorts this year, so it’s really a race that can go a number of ways, but I sense that Endgame and Period. End of Sentence will siphon votes off of each other, especially since they’re both fighting the battle of which is more timely. You could make the same argument for Black Sheep, but this one feels like it’ll go that way.

 

Best Animated Short

And the winner will be…Bao

Easily the easiest of the three short categories to predict, it feels like Bao had this win since it first screened in front of Incredibles 2 this summer. Pixar will enjoy another win in this category.

 

Best Visual Effects

And the winner will be…First Man

Despite the impressive visual feats of Avengers: Infinity War, which may end up taking this category, the Oscars rarely entertain the wins in this category to superhero films. Especially when you look at the more recent winners in this category, the more pure sci-fi films take the win, with examples like Avatar, Gravity, Interstellar, Ex Machina, and Blade Runner 2049. Plus, since is the most Best Picture-esque of the nominees, and the only one with nominations in other categories, I’m thinking this will be a hard-fought win for Damien Chazelle and company on a film that many, including myself, might win Best Picture 5 months ago.

 

Best Sound Editing

And the winner will be…A Quiet Place

I’m going to stick with an odd winner in this category, at least odd on the surface. A film about quietness winning sound editing? Well, look at films like Gravity winning this category, another film that was more about the silence than the loud explosions which typically decorate this category. Another recent winner in this category that points toward a win like A Quiet Place is Arrival, another film that utilized otherworldly creatures to great effect. There will be stiff competition with the loudest film in the category (First Man), and the presumed frontrunner in Sound Mixing (Bohemian Rhapsody), and the two sound categories lined up last year with Dunkirk, but split the year before with Arrival and Hacksaw Ridge. It seems like we’re lined up for another split this year.

 

Best Sound Mixing

And the winner will be…Bohemian Rhapsody

After the BAFTA win for Best Sound and winning the Cinema Audio Awards top honors, it feels like Bohemian Rhapsody may have this category all to itself. Some worry that the other musical film in this category, A Star is Born, may end up in vote splitting, I think the recent trend of wins for the film signals that it can overcome that obstacle.

 

Best Original Song

And the winner will be…“Shallow” from A Star is Born

Is it just me, or does it feel like this one was carved in stone since it was announced Lady Gaga and her crew were writing original songs for the film that it would win at the Oscars? This is probably the easiest of the tech categories to call.

 

Best Original Score

And the winner will be…If Beale Street Could Talk

While the film here may have waned since it’s early raves at the Toronto International Film Festival in the top categories, one aspect that is as appreciated now as it was then is the score by Nicholas Britell. There is a possibility of an upset here by Black Panther, but for now, the momentum seems to be on the side of Beale Street.

 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

And the winner will be…Vice

Another win that will be pretty easy to chalk up, I think the award is well-earned, though it could end up being the sole award for Adam McKay’s follow-up to The Big Short.

 

Best Production Design

And the winner will be…The Favourite

The BAFTA support for this film definitely helps, but the history of period pieces winning this category over fantasy pieces (you could argue Black Panther falls into that realm) pushes the scales in that direction.

 

Best Costume Design

And the winner will be…The Favourite

Similar to the two sound categories, these two categories like to line up. You have to go back to Mad Max: Fury Road sweeping both of these awards, but before that there’s examples like The Grand Budapest Hotel, The Great Gatsby, and Memoirs of a Geisha in recent years that show that The Favourite can handily win both.

 

Best Film Editing

And the winner will be…Vice

I’m leaning on the BAFTA win heavily here. Vice arguably has the most editing of the five nominees, though I’d look out for Bohemian Rhapsody and The Favourite, which both won at the ACE Eddie Editing Awards earlier this year.

 

Best Cinematography

And the winner will be…Roma

Despite the cinematographers guild giving their top prize to Cold War, I feel like Alfonso Cuaron has this category handily won. You could argue it’s the best shot film of the decade, and I don’t think Oscar voters are going to overlook that.

 

Best Foreign Language Film

And the winner will be…Roma

Yes, there is a sizeable chance that Cold War wins this if the Academy doesn’t feel comfortable giving Best Picture and Foreign Language to the same film (which has never happened before), but BAFTA did the same thing this year, so it seems like it’s going to happen.

 

Best Documentary Feature

And the winner will be…Free Solo

After the BAFTA win, it feels like this one is going to line up. Plus the film was a big success at the box office, and previous winners like Amy and March of the Penguins benefited from a large box office total.

 

Best Animated Feature

And the winner will be…Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse

A very easy call here. It’ll be Spider-Man. To quote the late, great Stan Lee, “’nuff said”.

 

Best Adapted Screenplay

And the winner will be...BlacKkKlansman

Despite not winning at the Writers Guild of America Awards, I feel like BlacKkKlansman has to win here. Similar to 12 Years a Slave five years ago, which was the presumed winner through the season but only won at Critics Choice, BlacKkKlansman only won at BAFTA, and while If Beale Street Could Talk and Can You Ever Forgive Me? are both films that have a lot of passion behind them, when you have two passionate nominees in the same category, they can cross each other out for the win. It also helps BlacKkKlansman’s case in that it’s the only Best Picture nominee among these three potential winners.

 

Best Original Screenplay

And the winner will be…First Reformed

You know, when we’ve had a different winner at every awards show, then something weird can happen. So, I’m going with the Critics Choice winner, First Reformed. At the WGA’s, a non-Oscar nominee won, and that would have been a great opportunity for something like Green Book, Vice, or Roma to win, but they couldn’t. Since The Favourite and First Reformed were not nominated at WGA, I think it comes down to those two, and when judging those two, I think the award goes to the legend in this category, Paul Schrader, who I think the Academy will want to acknowledge.

 

Best Actress in a Supporting Role

And the winner will be…Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk

I’m going to throw caution to the wind as far as the comparisons are concerned. Sure, Regina could be this year’s Sly Stallone, but it just feels like Rachel Weisz is too far behind in this race. Her win at BAFTA may be the only signal we have to a Mark Rylance-level upset, and even though The Favourite has three acting nominations, there’s an argument to be made as to if there is one performance that is better than the other two. That’s a tough call, and I think voters may have that same problem. In the meantime, King has the most win of any nominee in this category, and she also had a ton of support from critics groups, where she virtually swept up every possible win for supporting actress. That, and the passion behind the film helps this one win. And don’t forget, we’ve had a few past winners in this category win despite not having a Best Picture nomination, like Allison Janney in I, Tonya and Alicia Vikander in The Danish Girl.

 

Best Actor in a Supporting Role

And the winner will be…Mahershala Ali for Green Book

Of the four acting categories, this seems to be the easiest call. Mahershala has won the board this season for his sensational performance, and it’ll be a big win for one of the Academy’s favorites this year, Green Book.

 

Best Actress in a Leading Role

And the winner will be…Glenn Close for The Wife

Despite Olivia Colman’s win at BAFTA, which may result in a fluke win for her on Sunday, it feels like Glenn’s moment has come. After six losses, this would make her the most losing actress in Oscar history, besting Thelma Ritter and Deborah Kerr, who both had six nominations and six losses. Also consider Geraldine Page, who lost seven times, but won on her eighth nod. If another nomination doesn’t come for Glenn and she loses on Sunday, she would claim the trophy of most nominations without a win.

 

Best Actor in a Leading Role

And the winner will be…Rami Malek for Bohemian Rhapsody

A big win in a big category for Bohemian Rhapsody sounds right anyways, even if the film has its fair share of non-fans. Rami has won the same places as Eddie Redmayne four years ago, when he was in a tight battle with Michael Keaton. Christian Bale certainly seems like the one who would upset, and it might just happen, but it feels like Rami’s to lose.

 

Best Director

And the winner will be…Alfonso Cuaron for Roma

Alfonso, similar to Mahershala Ali, has run the board for the various directors prizes, including the Directors Guild of America Award, and even if Roma falls short for Best Picture, it’s taking director.

 

Best Picture

And the winner will be…Roma

While there was a lot of mystery in this category until recently, with Green Book, The Favourite, Black Panther, even something like Bohemian Rhapsody had a shot at it, but after BAFTA, which went crazy for The Favourite, couldn’t give Best Film to it, instead giving the win to Roma, it felt like game over for the other contenders. Roma would have four wins at the ceremony, the same number won by The Shape of Water last year, Birdman four years ago, and The King’s Speech in 2010. Two of those three films were art house, snobbish type films, if you will, and Roma fits right in there, so that’s what I’m going with.

So one last thing to do here is highlight which films have multiple wins. Just to gauge which films are going to be in contention for most wins, here’s the breakdown.

Roma – 4
Bohemian Rhapsody – 2
Vice – 2
The Favourite – 2
If Beale Street Could Talk – 2

I guess the last thing to do here is just say good luck to anyone else out there who will be trying to predict the winners. It’s a little tough to get a perfect 24/24, and to my knowledge, no one has ever claimed to do it, but you can always hope you get close. And with a rocky track record this year of trying to predict these awards, that’s the best I can hope for.